Sometimes you have to take a step back to have glory. Not everybody can be a perennial 10 game winner which is why for the teams on this list last year may have been a stepping stone for bigger things in 2014. Every year this list gets misconstrued for what it actually is about. So to clear that up lets get it out of the way first. This list is NOT a list of programs who will become great year in and year out. Simply put this is a list of ten teams who weren’t very good last year who expect to be much better or maybe a team who was decent last year but can be great this upcoming season. Call it the “ten teams who will improve the most in 2014″ list if you’d like. So what do we try to identify when coming up with this list? As always returning starters, perhaps teams who lost some coin flip games and lastly injuries that could have derailed a team. Needless to say look for these teams to bounce back in 2014 in a big way and give whatever exists of a fanbase for them more happy endings.
The following is what we’ve covered so far this offseason:
Preseason Top 25 (top 5 with links to rest)
Ten Teams on the Rise: (In no particular order)
Nevada Wolfpack
Law of averages could almost lead you to include Nevada on this list as since 2005 the Wolfpack have been a relatively consistent football team with only one bowl-less season and that was last year in the first season under new head coach Brian Polian. One of the most alarming things about last season was Nevada wasn’t all that competitive in many of their games especially in games vs quality opponents. One of the biggest problems was one of the nation’s worst defenses. Nevada couldn’t stop anybody a season ago and the run defense in particular was swiss cheese making it nearly impossible for Nevada to stick to the ground game. More often than not Cody Fajardo was forced to become a passer, something he showed flashes of being able to do but certainly not what made him such a weapon two years ago for Chris Ault. This year only two teams return more starters than Nevada and 10 of those are on defense. It’s not a matter of “It’d be helpful if the defense improved”, it’s a simply necessity. A handful of teams Nevada will play this season in conference lost substantial offensive talent and the Wolf Pack should be able to fare better. Offense is what has always driven this team and what will have to again this year. Fajardo has most of his skill position talent back and three offensive linemen. Injuries hampered Nevada a bit last season and it’s an issue like with anybody they have to hope to avoid this year. The Mountain West is down in my opinion this year. Nevada should be back in a bowl game and a contender in their division which waves goodbye to Derek Carr and David Fales and frankly is absent much of a sure thing.
Toledo Rockets
Last year I jumped off the Toledo train in exchange to go to war for Ball State and Keith Wenning (a wise decision as very few if any were correct in predicting the 10 wins I penciled them in for) regardless of how much #DraftTwitter overrates him *looking at you Kent Hodder.* The Rockets obliged falling to 7-5 overall including three losses in the MAC. This year with Jordan Lynch departing from NIU as one of the most overrated college football players of all-time and Ball State losing a lot of the skill position talent that made them so tough a year ago, Toledo should bounce back. The Rockets do lose QB Terrance Owens, leading rusher David Fluellen and leading receiver Bernard Reedy. SCARY RIGHT? No doubt but the offense still returns an extremely experienced offensive line, Alonzo Russell at WR who nearly matched Reedy and the second leading rusher who went over 860 yards. In other words, this offense isn’t completely depleted. The QB position will face adjustments without the dynamic Owens but this is the MAC, not a BCS conference. If you have enough weapons on O, you can adjust. Where I am most intrigued is by the defense. Like Nevada, Toledo simply couldn’t stop anyone last year. While it is the norm for the MAC as I just mentioned at some point you have to get defensive answers or else you end up…well…7-5 instead of competing for a MAC title. The defense brings nine guys back from a team that relentlessly got after the QB a year ago (36 sacks in 12 games) but has to be better in protection. Toledo should be able to contend for the MAC West crown and I wouldn’t be surprised if it can pull an upset vs an Iowa State or Cincinnati.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Remember that time I picked Southern Miss to go to a bowl game then they had to win the last game of the season to avoid going 0-12 for the second consecutive season? O you don’t because nobody reads this website? WELL THEN GET BACK ON THE SOUTHERN MISS TRAIN. Year two of the Todd Monken project at Southern Miss and things still have a ways to go. From 1-11, things can’t possibly be that bad in 2014, can they? Last year the thinking was Monken would take some of his success as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State and revive a Southern Miss group that frankly doesn’t play in the toughest of leagues. No Bueno. It didn’t happen and this team struggled immensely with a number of factors. It couldn’t run the ball and threw basically two interceptions per game, yes that’s ON AVERAGE. A lot of the offense is back this year though given the performance last year it’s tough to say for sure all the “returning starters” will indeed return and start. Defensively the team struggled in a number of areas but like the offense didn’t have a ton of seniors to lead the way. The Golden Eagles get a bunch of their top performers back as well. Last year I bought Todd Monken. This year I’m buying a wealth of returning players, perhaps foolishly given their play a season ago. What’s that saying about “Know when to hold em’, know when to fold em”? We’ll find out if I doubled up on stupidity.
Georgia Bulldogs
Healthy Georgia was a top 10-15 team in 2013. Unfortunately for Bulldogs fans that team didn’t hang around very long and by early October much of what Georgia thought they would have would prove to be out of commission or extremely handicapped. Still you saw against Auburn what this team was capable of even shorthanded. This season the Bulldogs get the majority of those weapons back and should once again be a major player in the SEC going into the season with the talent to knock off an SEC West power in a conference title game. Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall make up perhaps the best backfield in America, the wide receiver core is deep, the defense brings nearly everyone back (albeit needing to show a lot of improvement) and a new quarterback won’t face a ton of pressure with the help he’ll have around him. The schedule sets up favorably as well. Despite a brutal start to the season with Clemson and South Carolina back to back, the Bulldogs should be favored in every game after that with maybe the exception of Auburn. Things are lined up for the Bulldogs to win the East if they beat South Carolina and maybe even if they don’t. Can the defense make the strides it needs to? That remains to be seen but the offense should be good enough to overcome it most Saturdays. The Bulldogs never got a chance to live up to their potential a year ago. Barring a similar run of injuries they should redeem themselves in 2014.
Kentucky Wildcats
Since getting Mark Stoops to come over from Florida State to take the head coaching gig Kentucky has been drastically improving its recruiting. Stoops has turned Kentucky into a desirable location despite the program lacking any legitimate success in years. Two years ago the Wildcats were 63rd in recruiting. Stoops’ first offseason netted the 29th ranked class and this past offseason was good for 17th. With 16 starters back and young top talent rising into its sophomore season, it would be pretty big surprise if Kentucky couldn’t get a few more wins after a 2-10 season in 2013. What the record doesn’t show is how tough Kentucky played in some of its losses, namely games vs Louisville and South Carolina. Stoops inherited a mess of a program and has slowly started the build back to respectability. While teams like Georgia and South Carolina will once again be strong, we can’t be sure teams like Florida or Missouri will be top 25 teams and Vanderbilt certainly expects to take a step back. The home schedule is what will decide whether Kentucky can take a step forward this year. South Carolina and Georgia seem like the only games that a home win is unfathomable. A difficult road sked likely means Kentucky is still a year away from a bowl game but five wins should be in play if they handle their non-Louisville out of conference games and can get a couple SEC wins. Look for Kentucky’s record in 2014 to reflect its effort and competitiveness more than it did in 2013.
North Carolina Tar Heels
If I’m going to rank a team in the top 20 who was 7-6 a season ago it’s kind of hard to leave them off this list. Am I falling for the same trap some fell for a year ago and pushing this team forward despite inconsistency and perhaps underachievement for years now? Perhaps but the appeal is there for this team to make a splash and I’m taking the leap of faith that 2014 is that season. Larry Fedora got the Tar Heels rolling at the end of last season winning six of the final seven and the offense made it look easy. As we touched on in the writeup of them in the preseason top 25 there is plenty coming back for Fedora to work with including eight starters on offense. The QB position has options and with three offensive linemen back as well as skill position talent all over this could be the best Tar Heels offense since Fedora got to Chapel Hill. UNC brought in former Indiana offensive coordinator Seth Littrell who put up prolific numbers despite nowhere near the talent he’ll have at his disposal at UNC. Expectations are very high for this offense and with a few different options at quarterback, Littrell should get plenty of time to decide on who he wants running the ship. The key for UNC will be the defense making strides from last season. If UNC wants to live up to its potential it has to be better on the defensive side of the ball where it was terrible a season ago. The schedule has some tough ones with a trip to Clemson, Notre Dame and ECU out of conference and the usual ACC Coastal triumvirate of Miami, GT and VT but UNC should be capable of an 8-4 regular season with nine wins after a bowl game a real possibility. That is unless they decide to make a fool out of me and go 6-6 again.
Northwestern Wildcats
Last year was a train wreck for Northwestern in a year I thought they had enough back to push Nebraska and Michigan for the Legends Division title. Instead they lost close game after close game in essentially every way imaginable and missed a bowl game for the first time since 2007. My boy Pat Fitzgerald really dropped the ball for me a year ago but I’m restoring the faith and saying he gets Northwestern back to seven-eight wins in 2014. For starters the schedule is much more favorable than a season ago. No Michigan State or Ohio State on the schedule this year plus Michigan and Nebraska at home. While road trips to Penn State, Notre Dame and Iowa all present challenges, the Wildcats get a friendlier slate than they did a season ago. Kain Colter is gone but perhaps negating that blow a bit is the expected return of Venric Mark who exploded in 2012 but missed most of last year with an injury. The Wildcats offense simply didn’t do enough to help the defense a season ago. With nine starters back including the entire offensive line that will feature three seniors, Northwestern should get more out of that side. Trevor Siemian will have to bring more to a passing game that struggled a year ago to maximize this unit’s potential but either way the offense SHOULD be better. Defensively the Wildcats weren’t really bad last year. A lot of their close losses were a result of turnovers by the offense, ridiculous bad luck (see Michigan/Nebraska endings) or simply running out of steam. In fact if Pat Fitzgerald could sign up for the same defensive performance this year I think he’d take it. Look for Northwestern to be back in a bowl game as it puts a brutally frustrating 2013 behind them.
Florida Gators
If you ignore everything about the roster, coach, etc and just say “I’ll trust history”, that alone says the Florida Gators should bounce back in 2014. Last year was the first time since 1979 that Florida finished with a losing record, making the odds of Florida not getting back to AT LEAST six-seven wins seem highly unlikely. Add in the fact I’m doubting Missouri or LSU are as good as a year ago and Florida probably won’t duplicate a Georgia Southern caliber loss and there’s plenty to like about the Gators chances of improving this year. There weren’t many teams who could play the injury excuse as much as the Gators last season who were decimated on both sides of the ball. Jeff Driskel (stop laughing) returns to give a RESPECTABLE option at quarterback after the Gators were really hampered after his injury a year ago. With the return of the majority of the rushing attack plus a fresh look on offense, hopefully for Muschamp, Florida can figure out a way to provide support to a defense that was criminally unassisted a year ago. The defense again will be among the top 15-20 at worst in college football in all likelihood. The Gators have elite talent at each level of the defense and should they be given a legitimate amount of help from the offense won’t face the “be perfect or lose” scenario it faced a season ago. I’m not ready to put this team into SEC East contender status with Georgia and South Carolina but I expect them to be a top 25 team again, a major progression from the dumpster fire of 2013.
Houston Cougars
Two things drive Houston onto this list: 1) 17 returning starters, tied for sixth most in the country and if I’ve said it once I’ve said it 100 times, I love me some returning starters and 2) The AAC SUCKS. It literally is going to be worse than it was a year ago and it was a pretty feeble league as a whole last year. The offense was pretty good for most of the season despite struggles down the back end of the schedule when the quality of play ratcheted up. John O’Korn had a fairly strong freshman season and winds up with nearly all of his weapons back on the offensive side of the ball. The running back staple returns all of its top four rushers despite not being a dynamic unit last year. The wide receiver core which had a ridiculous 11 players catch 10+ passes a season ago is stacked with leading receiver Deontay Greenberry coming into his junior year off a season in which he caught 82 passes for over 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns. How effective Korn is as a sophomore and how much the ball is spread around could dictate how much he progresses but the fact is he’s a candidate for a monster season. The offensive line will need reshaping as well to aid this air attack. Defensively Houston struggled defending the pass last year but brings nine starters back including the entire defensive line that held all but one team (Rutgers) to less than five yards per carry last season. You look at the schedule and with UCF coming to town, if Houston can hold serve there, you may be able to circle the last two games at SMU and at Cincy to see if Houston can pull down the AAC crown in Tony Levine’s third season.
California Golden Bears
When it’s two AM and you’re tired trying to finish up some writing, you look for an easy efficient way to finish up. With a struggle to find a 10th team to include it’s worth throwing a flier on a team who only won one game a season ago to improve by a few wins. Insert California here who likely had Sonny Dykes on the brink of a breakdown with the terrible season it had last year. A very young team returns in 2014 and will have to win games with offense as the defense was among the worst in the country last season and faces a very daunting schedule. Can Cal scrape out three-four wins? We’ll see but they’re a rather safe bet seeing as A) It’s hard to be worse and B) the amount of wins required isn’t all that much. Those two things make for a nice flier on a team as #10 on this list. Now if you want a real rundown of California, go check out their preview here.
I’ll be back soon with a look at the other side and ten teams who face a drop off in 2014, a much easier list to make.
